I hand you a stack of 17 envelopes. Sixteen of them contain a fat check, enough to make you very happy and comfortable. The 17th envelope holds proof of complete financial ruin.
Do you open an envelope?
I show you a tray of 17 crystal flutes. Sixteen of them are filled with the finest, most delicious Champagne you’ll ever taste. The 17th contains a deadly poison.
Do you take a glass?
*
You can’t make good decisions without information.
Too much information makes it painfully impossible, or impossibly painful, to make a decision.
*
There is no black or white. There are only shades of gray, and they go on for so long I could never reach the end.
*
One in 17. That’s the chance that another baby would suffer the same fate as his brother did.
I don’t think I like those odds.
{ 19 comments… read them below or add one }
God that’s hard. Thinking of you.
16 in 17.
Don’t forget that your chances are 16 in 17 that the outcome will be good.
Difficult decision, to say the least.
Your first analogy is more apt than the second, I think. In the champagne question, the possibilities held in the glasses are either painful death or a few minutes of bubbly pleasure. Plenty of people are willing to risk their lives in the pursuit of brief pleasure (skydivers, people who pick up strangers at the bar and then don’t stop for condoms on the way home) but I’m not one of them, and besides, that’s really not what we’re talking about here.
But in your first analogy, there is a 1-in-17 chance that something awful but survivable will happen, and a 16 out of 17 chance that you’ll be blessed with riches you can enjoy for the rest of your life. That’s a better description of your dilemma, I think.
If I had to make this decision for you (which I know I don’t), I’d want to have the information about what this 1-in-17 means. Is it just a generalized statistic, or are you dealing with a genetic condition that a child would have that likelihood of inheriting? If it’s the latter, is it something that can be tested for through CVS so you won’t have to spend your entire pregnancy freaking out?
I know this is becoming a book, and I’m sorry, but these are issues that strike VERY close to home for me. And it’s from the perspective of my own story that I can say that you can decide not to decide. After all, deciding to try for a baby really amounts to deciding to stop preventing a pregnancy from occurring. You can decide that the decision is out of your hands, that you’ll just leave the door open, so to speak, and see what happens. We only have the illusion of control of our reproductive capabilities, and it can be quite liberating to surrender it.
My heart continues to break. I can only imagine how you feel.
A hug from me.
Those are the textbook odds. Your personal odds are no doubt much better.
Even so, that doesn’t diminish the pain of making this decision. I’m here if you need me.
Weighing possible joy with possible sadness is incredibly hard. More evidence that being an adult sucks sometimes. I wish it was different for you.
I’m so sorry, Mayberry.
But either way, you’re a mom with beautiful children who love you. In a way, you’ve already beaten the odds.
I’ll be thinking of you.
Oh, honey. I understand what you mean by paralysis – it’s so hard to know, even by collecting more data if there is any. It’s still a combination of the heart and mind to decide. Thinking of you and your beautiful family.
I’m terrible at coming up with the *perfect* thing to say in these situation, so I’ll just say what I feel. I am so sorry. My heart aches for you and your family. I’ll keep you in my thoughts and prayers today.
Good luck. I don’t envy you the decision, but I will send my love and support as you’re making it.
Wow. Those are tough odds to see. I can certainly understand your hesitation. But. As others have pointed out it really is 6 in 102, which means that 96 babies are born because their parents took the risk.
The outcome could be painful again…but it could be absolutely wonderful too. I don’t pretend to know your pain, but I do know that risk is often worth it, when it comes to things like this.
I was also going to point out that 96 in just over a hundred babies would be absolutely fine with the quoted odds, meaning they’re heavily in your favor, but I see Heather beat me to it.
Only you and your husband can make the decision whether or not the risk is worth it … I personally would say it is … but everyone is different. My thoughts are with you.
Aiiyyy. Really, those are the odds? I’m agonizing for you – I can’t imagine.
In your theoretical proposals, before I read to the end, I thought “Yes, I’ll try it!” on example 1, and “Nope, I’ll pass,” on example 2.
But then I kept reading. If we haven’t been there, we really can’t say, can we? I’m sending all good wishes and prayers your way.
I don’t know if this is helpful but as I sit here turning this around and around, I keep coming back to, the odds are never perfect. No one has 100% chance for anything. I feel for you and all the thoughts that must be swirling around in your head. You’ll know what the answer is when you get there.
Oh that sucks. I’m so sorry. Wishing you peace with your decision. Sigh…
Wow, that’s a tough one. I don’t know what I’d do, but I am sending you good thoughts and prayers as you make your own decision. I’m sorry you are faced with this.
I’m going to go with wishing you all good things and love and light and ease.
Well, I was looking at something like 12 in 17 (or, to round down, about 2 in 3) odds that I’d be looking at another bad outcome and you know what I did.
Not that that makes your decision any easier.
{ 1 trackback }